Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Mauritania
  • Kazakhstan
  • Saudi Arabia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,447$ on 2020-10-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $309$ on 2020-10-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-10-07

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,709$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,475.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 79.7)}}\) (asimptote \(51,475.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,082$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,978.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,978.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,327$ on 2020-10-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $333,940$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260,300.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(260,300.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,061$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,968.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(34,968.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,576$ on 2020-10-07

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,549,682$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,877,651.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 146.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,877,651.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $211,801$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,104.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 86.8)}}\) (asimptote \(203,104.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,337,986$ on 2020-10-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $546,952$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{372,842.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 74.9)}}\) (asimptote \(372,842.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,605$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,038.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(41,038.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $501,922$ on 2020-10-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,677$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,375.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 98.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,375.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,892$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,773.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,773.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,785$ on 2020-10-07

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $311,137$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,211.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(245,211.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,582$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,120.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,120.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,833$ on 2020-10-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Mauritania recovered 95%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Saudi Arabia recovered 85%
Yemen recovered 78%
El Salvador recovered 64%
Senegal recovered 58%
Malawi recovered 55%
Peru recovered 55%
Kuwait recovered 54%
Bolivia recovered 50%
Kenya recovered 46%
Tajikistan recovered 42%
Bahrain recovered 39%
Dominican Republic recovered 38%
Venezuela recovered 33%
Rwanda recovered 32%
Bangladesh recovered 30%
Mozambique recovered 24%
Israel recovered 13%
Denmark recovered 12%
India recovered 11%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,840$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,027.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.5)}}\) (asimptote \(56,027.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $189$ on 2020-10-07

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,535$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,121.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 91.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,121.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $162$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(158.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-10-07

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,454$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,638.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,638.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,741.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,741.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,104$ on 2020-10-07

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $337,711$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333,070.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333,070.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,947$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,980.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,980.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,556$ on 2020-10-07